Methodology

Behind the Bets does not summarize headlines.

It synthesizes. Each issue is built by moving between ten sources of signal, then compressing what's actually changing into a single strategic narrative.

The goal is to help readers understand where prediction markets are heading before those shifts become obvious.

  1. 01
    Research

    Primary and secondary research on the market's regulatory, financial, and structural developments.

  2. 02
    Industry Conversations

    Off-the-record discussions with operators, founders, market makers, and institutional participants.

  3. 03
    Regulatory Developments

    Close reading of CFTC filings, no-action letters, state-level positions, and international precedents.

  4. 04
    Trading Activity

    Volume, depth, spread, and inventory data, what markets are actually doing, not what they say.

  5. 05
    Infrastructure

    The middleware, oracles, custody, and data providers whose choices shape what venues can offer.

  6. 06
    Exchange Strategy

    How the venues themselves are positioning: product roadmaps, licensing posture, and go-to-market.

  7. 07
    Capital Formation

    Where equity and debt are being deployed, at what stage, and against what thesis.

  8. 08
    Institutional Adoption

    The desks, funds, and treasuries beginning to treat event contracts as an asset class.

  9. 09
    Market Behavior

    Behavioral patterns, herding, mispricings, and the emergent norms of a young market.

  10. 10
    Long-term Trends

    The structural shifts that will still matter in three years, separated from the ones that won't.